9000  REM *****STKSMO*****BUSINESS PROGRAM
9005  REM STKSMO**********VERSION #1(7/31/69)**EXP SMOOTHING AS STOCK GUIDE     
9010  REM
9015  PRINT "*  EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AS A STOCK GUIDE  *"
9020  PRINT 
9025  DIM P[100],X[100],Y[100],N[100],G[100],Q[100]
9030  LET P9=X9=Y9=N9=G9=Q9=100
9031  DIM N$[3],A$[25],B$[35]
9035  LET Q=0
9040  IF Q=1 THEN 9090
9045  IF Q=2 THEN 9279
9050  PRINT "  THIS PROGRAM USES EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OF PAST PRICE DATA TO PROVIDE"
9055  PRINT "  A GUIDE FOR THE TIMING OF BUY AND SELL ORDERS."
9060  PRINT 
9065  PRINT "  TO ENTER THE DATA FOR THE STOCK YOU ARE CONSIDERING, TYPE THE DATA "
9070  PRINT "  BEGINNING IN LINE 9900.  NO MORE THAN 100 PERIODS MAY BE CONSIDERED."
9075  PRINT "          THEN TYPE: '9035  LET Q=1'"
9080  PRINT "                     'RUN'"
9085  GOTO 9999
9090  PRINT "   FOR HOW MANY PERIODS DID YOU ENTER DATA";
9095  INPUT M
9100  PRINT 
9105  PRINT "ENTER A SMOOTHING COEFFICIENT BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.9";
9110  INPUT A
9115  FOR T=1 TO M
9120  READ P[T]
9125  NEXT T
9130  LET G[G9]=P[2]-P[1]
9135  LET N[N9]=P[1]-G[G9]
9140  LET X[X9]=N[N9]-((1-A)/A)*G[G9]
9145  LET Y[Y9]=N[N9]-(2*(1-A)/A)*G[G9]
9150  GOSUB 9380
9165  PRINT 
9170  PRINT "DO YOU WISH TO USE THIS PROGRAM AS A CONTINUING AID FOR THE TIMING OF"
9185  PRINT "BUY AND SELL DECISIONS ON THIS SAME STOCK AT SOME FUTURE TIME";
9195  INPUT N$
9196  PRINT 
9197  PRINT 
9200  IF N$[1,2]="NO" THEN 9272
9205  PRINT 
9240  PRINT "WHAT IS THE NAME OF THIS STOCK";
9245  INPUT A$
9250  PRINT "WHAT TIME PERIOD HAVE YOU USED THUS FAR??(EX:MAY 1,1969 TO MAY 1,1970)"
9255  INPUT B$
9260  PRINT "THEN ENTER THE FOLLOWING LINES BEFORE SIGNING OFF:"
9262  PRINT "     '9035  LET Q=2'"
9263  PRINT "     '9286  LET X(X9) =";X[M];"'"
9264  PRINT "     '9287  LET Y(Y9) =";Y[M];"'"
9265  PRINT "     '9288  LET A =";A;"'"
9266  PRINT "     '9280  LET A$ ='";A$;"' '"
9267  PRINT "     '9281  LET B$ ='";B$;"' '"
9268  PRINT "     'KILL-STKSMO'"
9269  PRINT "     'SAVE'"
9270  GOTO 9999
9272  PRINT "THEN ENTER '9035 LET Q=0', 'KILL-STKSMO', AND 'SAVE' BEFORE SIGNING OFF."
9275  GOTO 9999
9279  PRINT "THIS PROGRAM IS BEING USED TO PROVIDE A GUIDE TO THE TIMING OF BUY"
9285  PRINT "AND SELL ORDERS ON ";A$;"."
9290  PRINT 
9295  PRINT "IT IS BASED UPON DATA FROM THE PERIOD:";B$;"."
9300  PRINT 
9305  PRINT "FOR HOW MANY ADDITIONAL PERIODS FOLLOWING THE LAST MARKET DATA"
9310  PRINT "SHOWN DO YOU WISH TO ENTER DATA";
9315  INPUT M
9320  FOR T=1 TO M
9325  PRINT "WHAT IS THE PRICE FOR PERIOD";T;
9330  INPUT P[T]
9335  NEXT T
9340  PRINT 
9345  PRINT "WHAT PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE (EXPRESSED AS A DECIMAL) BETWEEN THE PRE-"
9350  PRINT "DICTED AND ACTUAL PRICE WOULD YOU LIKE TO USE AS A SCREENING RATE"
9355  PRINT "FOR THE BUY AND SELL ORDERS";
9360  INPUT C
9365  GOSUB 9380
9370  GOSUB 9495
9375  GOTO 9170
9380  PRINT 
9385  PRINT "******************uj***********************************************"
9390  PRINT "PERIOD         ACTUAL         ESTIMATED",
9395  PRINT "ESTIMATED      PREDICTED"
9400  PRINT "               PRICE          PRICE",
9405  PRINT " GROWTH        PRICE FOR"
9410  PRINT " "," "," "," ","NEXT PERIOD"
9415  PRINT 
9420  FOR T=1 TO M
9425  IF T>1 THEN 9440
9430  LET X[1]=A*P[1]+(1-A)*X[X9]
9435  LET Y[1]=A*X[1]+(1-A)*Y[Y9]
9436  GOTO 9450
9440  LET X[T]=A*P[T]+(1-A)*X[T-1]
9445  LET Y[T]=A*X[T]+(1-A)*Y[T-1]
9450  LET N[T]=2*X[T]-Y[T]
9455  LET G[T]=(A/(1-A))*(X[T]-Y[T])
9460  LET Q[T+1]=N[T]+G[T]
9465  PRINT T,P[T],N[T],G[T],Q[T+1]
9470  NEXT T
9475  PRINT 
9480  PRINT "***********************************************************************"
9485  PRINT 
9490  RETURN 
9495  FOR T=1 TO M
9500  LET H=Q[T+1]/P[T]-1
9505  IF H>C THEN 9555
9510  IF H<-C THEN 9535
9515  PRINT "IN PERIOD";T;"THE PREDICTED PRICE VARIES FROM THE ACTUAL PRICE BY"
9520  PRINT "LESS THAN";C*100;"PERCENT, AND NO BUY OR SELL ORDER IS INDICATED."
9530  GOTO 9570
9535  PRINT "IN PERIOD";T;"THE PREDICTED PRICE IS BELOW THE ACTUAL PRICE BY MORE"
9540  PRINT "THAN";C*100;"PERCENT, AND A SELL ORDER IS INDICATED."
9550  GOTO 9570
9555  PRINT "IN PERIOD";T;"THE PREDICTED PRICE IS ABOVE THE ACTUAL PRICE BY MORE"
9560  PRINT "THAN";C*100;"PERCENT, AND A BUY ORDER IS INDICATED."
9570  PRINT 
9575  PRINT 
9580  NEXT T
9585  PRINT "--------------------------------------------------------------------"
9590  RETURN 
9900  DATA 10,12,14,13,14,15,16,18
9999  END 
